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Old 03-07-2013, 08:52 AM   #1
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Question about chance of conception this month! Update: added my chart yikes!

DH & I have 4 kids. Youngest almost 18 months. We are"done" & we are using withdrawal method (it does work for us) along with BBT. Basically use BBT so that at 2dpo until AF, we don't have to do withdrawal. So this cycle I'm currently on cd14, O was yesterday on cd13 which is highly unusual for me. Typical is cd16 or cd17. AF technically ended cd7 (spotting last 2 days of AF) we DTD very late at night on cd8 but DH did not withdraw. Would never have let him do that if I knew I'd O on cd13! I can put link to my chart when I get home. What do u think my chances of conception could be? I'm a little nervous...

Update: yikes FF has my O date as cd12??!! Can this be wrong I really feel like cd13 was my O date. Chart: http://fertilityfriend.com/home/314780/

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Old 03-07-2013, 10:29 AM   #2
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I don't know how likely, but possible. We had a surprise one month when I ovulated early and caught several day old sperm (we did FAM with condoms while fertile). As soon as I got early ovulation signs I just KNEW.
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Old 03-07-2013, 11:59 AM   #3
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Re: Can I share here? (Question about chance of conception this month)

thanks...I think this is how i got preggo with DD#2 in 2007. I remember clearly that we DTD just a couple days after AF was over. At that time, I was not temping so I wasn't aware of exact O date. Well- whatever happens I am ok with it. I never had a "surprise" before, bec as I wrote, the withdrawal method, although many say you can't rely on it, always worked for us. Because we never had an "oops" moment I guess. I just can't believe I ovulated so early in my cycle! In the 4ish years I have been temping it has never been so early.
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Old 03-07-2013, 12:17 PM   #4
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Yeah, I had charted for years and always ovulated cd18. The month we got pregnant with the one before this one, I ovulated on cd13. Very unexpected. I had started taking a supplement that (unexpectedly) changed my hormone balance immediately (I've read of people having similar experiences when going paleo, as well). Our last unprotected encounter was a few days prior. I've learned if there is a chance with my body, odds are good that sperm and egg will meet

My 2nd son was conceived skipping one condom the day I was ovulating. We made the conscious decision, then decided the next night to wait a few months, lol. Yeah, right.

Anyway, hope when this tww is over you get the answer you want!
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Old 03-07-2013, 12:25 PM   #5
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Re: Can I share here? (Question about chance of conception this month)

thank you so much for sharing your story. That is pretty much the way it is for us too. If we DTD in the correct window before ovulation, I have always gotten pregnant first try. That's funny it was on cd13 for me as well. Haven't taken any new supplements, I only take my new chapter perfect prenatal, as my son is nursing, he is 18mos. this month. I haven't said anything to my husband because I don't want him to be anxious or think about it, I'm ok with dealing with it in my own mind for the next week or 2. I don't want to hope for it, or against it. It would be wonderful and crazy at the same time.
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Old 03-08-2013, 07:33 AM   #6
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Re: Question about chance of conception this month! Update: added my chart yikes!

I added my chart, read update & link is in orig post
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Old 03-09-2013, 06:24 AM   #7
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Re: Question about chance of conception this month! Update: added my chart yikes!

Definately on CD 13 for sure and I see that FF changed the date finally. There is a 5% chance of pregnancy for you with DTD 5 days before ovulation. The highest likely days (24%) are 2-3 days prior. Also with DTD even with pulling out you raise the chance a bit due to pre-*** having sperm in it.
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Old 03-09-2013, 08:42 AM   #8
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Re: Question about chance of conception this month! Update: added my chart yikes!

Yes, it did change date! I knew it was cd13 for me...so just have to wait & see. 5% chance doesn't sound very high. What do u think about dtd very late betw 11pm & midnight, does that make it almost like 4 days before O? I always record it on the actual day it occurs.
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Old 03-09-2013, 11:09 AM   #9
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Re: Question about chance of conception this month! Update: added my chart yikes!

The highest chance you ever have per cycle is 25%, so while 5% seems low it means 5 out of 100, which is actually not bad odds. Four days prior is like 15% chance.
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Old 03-09-2013, 08:25 PM   #10
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Re: Question about chance of conception this month! Update: added my chart yikes!

Hmmm. I don't know what to think about the chances. I have always gotten preggo very easily but obviously the timing wasnt ideal for conception. I googled the percentages & as u said its 5% but then i also read how many ppl conceived under these circumstances. This will be a bit of a lesson to me that DH & I can't do this at all pre-O bec u just never know when O will happen earlier.
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